India’s bankruptcy courts aren't just random luck; you can predict what happens 72% of the time based on the data.
SSRN · March 18, 2026 · 6178244
The Takeaway
Foreign investors often avoid emerging markets like India because they believe the legal system is a 'black box' where outcomes depend on judicial whims. This census of 4,820 cases proves the system is actually highly consistent; the perceived 'chaos' is actually just a lack of data for outsiders compared to local insiders.
From the abstract
India's net Foreign Direct Investment collapsed from $10 billion to $353 million in FY2024-25. Foreign investors consistently cite regulatory uncertainty and insolvency framework unpredictability among their concerns. The conventional diagnosis attributes this to judicial arbitrariness in IBC proceedings-the perception that outcomes depend more on bench assignment than case merits. This paper examines that diagnosis using computational analysis of the complete corpus of resolved insolvency proce