Fixing the economy won't kill off populism once people have already fallen into a "low-trust trap."
SSRN · March 18, 2026 · 6297438
The Takeaway
Common wisdom suggests that people vote for populists when the economy is bad and return to mainstream parties when things improve. This paper finds that political distrust creates a feedback loop where voters stay receptive to 'alternative truths' even when traditional politicians perform well, meaning populist cycles can persist indefinitely regardless of actual results.
From the abstract
We define populism as a platform that promotes policies based on a mis-specified model of the world-a simple alternative worldview. Voters' trust in the traditional political class evolves over time, depending on the performance of mainstream politicians while in office. Crucially, political distrust increases voters' susceptibility to the alternative worldviews offered by populists. In turn, the threat of populist success disciplines traditional politicians encouraging better performance. We st