Every single hectare of coca grown in Colombia ends up costing about $48,000 in overdose deaths here in the States.
SSRN · March 17, 2026 · 6298808
The Takeaway
Researchers linked the 2015 surge in Colombian coca production directly to U.S. mortality rates, finding that the supply shock caused 1,000–1,500 extra deaths per year. This creates a quantifiable, per-hectare economic link between foreign agricultural policy and domestic public health crises.
From the abstract
Colombian coca cultivation fell dramatically between 2000 and 2015, a period that saw intense U.S.-backed eradication and interdiction efforts. That progress reversed in 2015, when peace talks and legal rulings in Colombia opened enforcement gaps. Coca plantation has since increased to record levels, which coincided with a sharp rise in cocaine-related overdose deaths in the U.S. We estimate how much of that rise can be causally attributed to Colombia's new coca boom. Leveraging the unforeseen c