Forget the 'nesting' myth—people actually spend way less money while they’re pregnant and only start splurging after the baby shows up.
SSRN · March 17, 2026 · 6299501
The Takeaway
Using transaction data and birth records, researchers found that spending and shopping trip frequency actually decline early in pregnancy. The expected shopping spree is a myth; the 20-25% jump in supermarket spending and the shift away from discretionary categories only trigger once the child is actually born.
From the abstract
Major life transitions, such as pregnancy and childbirth, reshape lifestyles and purchasing priorities, yet causal evidence on how consumers reallocate spending across product categories remains limited. We quantify the effects of first-time parenthood by linking a large-scale transactional panel to verified birth records. To identify causal effects, we implement a difference-indifferences design augmented with causal forests, enabling flexible comparisons between households entering parenthood