Immigrant communities have learned the police schedules so well that their spending drops even on days when no one is getting arrested.
SSRN · March 17, 2026 · 6299879
The Takeaway
While many assume people only react to active raids, this data shows that communities develop 'learning frictions' where they enter economic hibernation on specific weekdays based on perceived risk. Even after enforcement stops entirely, it takes over a year for consumer behavior to return to normal because these learned beliefs are so persistent.
From the abstract
Immigration enforcement affects millions of individuals who make daily economic decisions under uncertainty about state action. Using data from 2014 to 2018, we study how households learn about and respond to enforcement risk by combining daily bank account transaction data with arrest-level records of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations. We document that enforcement follows predictable weekday patterns and that communities with large immigrant populations have learned them: Con