Social Science Cosmic Scale

The value of your house is actually tied to how strong the U.S. dollar is, even if you’re living on the other side of the world.

SSRN · March 13, 2026 · 6305158

Torsten Ehlers, Mathias Hoffmann, Alexander Raabe

Why it matters

Because global banks rely on US dollar funding to issue mortgages, a stronger dollar forces these banks to tighten credit everywhere. This creates a 'global landlord' effect where house prices across different countries move in sync based on US currency fluctuations, regardless of local economic health.

From the abstract

<span>House prices co-move considerably across countries. We show how non-US global banks and their exposure to US dollar funding conditions help explain this comovement. When the dollar appreciates, mortgage lending and house prices decrease more in borrower countries whose non-US creditor banks are more exposed to dollar funding conditions. As US dollar funding conditions vary, borrowing country pairs with higher joint exposure to US dollar funding conditions via their non-US creditor banks ex