Social Science Paradigm Challenge

Those government checks for "carbon capture" are actually encouraging power plants to burn more fuel and stay open longer.

SSRN · March 13, 2026 · 6305498

Maxwell Brown, Daniel Steinberg

Why it matters

While these tax credits are meant to reduce carbon, they are paid per ton of CO2 captured. This research shows the policy creates a perverse incentive to favor inefficient, high-pollution plants because they 'produce' more CO2 to harvest, keeping dirty plants running that would otherwise have been shut down.

From the abstract

Since 2008, the US has provided a subsidy for carbon capture and storage (CCS) via a tax credit for captured and used or stored CO2. The value of the tax credit is specified per-tonne of CO2 stored or used. Using an analytical model accompanied by detailed electricity sector simulations, we compare the existing per-tonne storage subsidy with an alternative, generation-based ($/MWh) subsidy that achieves an equivalent level of generation from CCS technologies. In doing so, we evaluate how the str