The safer a politician’s seat is, the more likely they are to vote for extreme, crazy policies instead of playing it safe.
SSRN · March 17, 2026 · 6309419
The Takeaway
Common wisdom suggests that politicians in 'safe' districts can afford to be more moderate. Instead, this study finds that high margins of victory act as a shield, allowing legislators to ignore the middle and swing toward the ideological fringes without fear of losing their jobs.
From the abstract
This paper investigates whether greater electoral security is associated with individual legislators adopting more extreme positions in the U.S. House of Representatives. Building on George Stigler's (1972) theory that larger margins of victory can empower political parties to pursue more extreme policies, the analysis extends his framework to the individual level. Using panel data from the 95th to the 117th Congresses, election results from the MIT Election Lab (2024) are combined with modified