Once you actually start learning a new skill, you get worse at predicting how much more you’re going to learn in the future.
SSRN · March 17, 2026 · 6313398
The Takeaway
We usually assume that 'doing' something gives us better self-awareness. However, this study found that when people struggle with a task, they don't conclude they lack talent; instead, they adopt a wrong mental model of the learning process, leading to excessive pessimism and a 37% drop in further investment.
From the abstract
How do people learn from their learning experiences? I study how past learning shapes beliefs about future skill acquisition and investment decisions, using a controlled experiment that exogenously manipulates learning ability and skill shortage. By eliciting predicted learning trajectories at multiple horizons, I decompose belief errors into two channels: parameter error-misestimation of one's learning ability-and function error-misunderstanding how ability translates into skill acquisition ove