Two years of weekly shutdowns that paralyzed transport in Nigeria didn't actually have any impact on infant mortality.
SSRN · March 18, 2026 · 6327861
The Takeaway
One would expect that stopping all movement and commerce in a developing region would cause a spike in early-life deaths due to lack of food or healthcare. However, the study found a 'precisely estimated null' effect on average, though it significantly widened the survival gap between the rich and the poor.
From the abstract
Weekly sit-at-home orders issued by the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB) have repeatedly disrupted markets, transport, and schools across Southeast Nigeria since August 2021. I estimate the health effects of these mandates using Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey birth histories (2014–2023) in a difference-in-differences design comparing the five treated Southeast states to neighboring South-South states before and after the onset of institutionalized sit-at-home orders. Event-study estimat