economics Paradigm Challenge

The rules meant to keep trading safe are actually just giving traders new ways to legally rig the game.

SSRN · March 18, 2026 · 6328819

Francesco Nicolai, Simona Risteska

The Takeaway

Most people assume that financial regulations and risk limits make markets more stable and safe. This paper reveals that because these rules are predictable, they create a 'feedback loop' that professional traders can exploit, potentially triggering the very market crashes the rules were designed to prevent.

From the abstract

<div> <p>Under classic no-manipulation conditions on market impact, price-based risk constraints (margins, haircuts, leverage limits, volatility targets, mandates) can still generate dynamic arbitrage. We develop a refined no-dynamic-arbitrage test for such environments; it requires only the constraint rule and an estimate of market impact. The test also yields an upper bound on the size of the constrained sector consistent with non-manipulability. We apply it to volatility-managed portfolios: a