People without solar panels are missing out on way more cash than they think—like, 150% more.
SSRN · March 18, 2026 · 6331439
The Takeaway
While many blame the high upfront cost of solar for low adoption, this study reveals a massive 'pessimism bias.' Non-adopters are so convinced that the long-term savings are small that they ignore the financial benefits, even when subsidies make the panels affordable.
From the abstract
This article investigates the political economy of energy transition in Mexico, a country with vast solar potential but distorted electricity markets. Using randomized survey experiments, we analyze the drivers of public support for utility-scale renewables and the adoption of private residential solar (PV). The results reveal a "green support gap": clean energy backing is high but highly elastic to tariff surcharges. Regarding private adoption, we find sub-additivity between upfront subsidies a