The way the Champions League is set up is mathematically killing the competition in local soccer leagues.
SSRN · March 17, 2026 · 6406478
The Takeaway
Because UEFA uses a 'league coefficient' that grants direct access to top-performing teams, it creates a self-reinforcing loop where the same few clubs get more money every year. This 'entrenchment' at the European level has made domestic match outcomes in England, Spain, and Germany increasingly predictable and boring.
From the abstract
In this paper, we consider the evolution of UEFA competitions for the last 25 years. We find that because of the use of the “league coefficient” in granting direct access to clubs from the highest ranking leagues, access to the Champions league (CL) has had a strong self-reinforcing element so that participation in one year increases the likelihood of participation in subsequent years. We also find that the scope of direct access has been enlarged over time and that the distribution of prize mon