Illegal toxic waste dumping by the mob is causing about two extra cancer deaths every year in certain Italian towns.
SSRN · March 17, 2026 · 6408398
The Takeaway
By analyzing four decades of administrative data and historical wind patterns, researchers quantified a 'hidden' cost of corruption. They proved that cancer mortality spiked specifically in towns downwind of mafia-controlled dump sites, revealing how institutional failure manifests as a physical, lethal externality years later.
From the abstract
We study the long-run health effects of illegal toxic waste disposal conducted by organized crime in Italy. We exploit quasi-random variation in historical wind direction around contaminated sites combined with a difference-in-differences design. Using administrative cancer mortality data spanning four decades, we find that wind exposure to pollutants stemming from the contaminated sites increases cancer mortality substantially. The effects emerge after long latencies and grow over time. In late