Social Science Paradigm Challenge

Making teacher tests harder doesn't give us better teachers—it just leaves us with empty classrooms.

SSRN · March 13, 2026 · 6408638

John Fallon, Marcus A. Winters

Why it matters

When Indiana raised the bar for teacher licenses, the total number of new licenses dropped, but there was no measurable increase in teacher quality. In fact, quality slightly declined in urban schools, suggesting that harder exams act as a barrier to entry rather than a filter for talent.

From the abstract

We use longitudinal administrative data from Indiana to examine changes in teacher quality following the state’s shift to a more difficult licensure test. Despite a significant drop in new licenses issued following the change in the licensure test standard, the overall quality of incoming teachers and the relative quality of licensed teachers compared to unlicensed teachers remained largely unchanged. We find some heterogeneity by subject and school setting, with urban schools experiencing a mod