economics Paradigm Challenge

Treating e-cigarettes like regular tobacco actually keeps people smoking longer compared to countries that treat them differently.

SSRN · March 17, 2026 · 6410219

Doron Lavee, Florian Steidl

The Takeaway

Standard policy logic suggests that strict, uniform regulation of all nicotine products is the best way to curb use. However, this study found that countries with risk-proportionate policies—treating lower-risk alternatives differently—saw smoking rates 7 percentage points lower than those with uniform restrictions.

From the abstract

Over the past years, governments have made substantial progress in tobacco control through higher taxes, advertising bans, and public smoking restrictions. Yet, in many advanced economies, smoking rates have stopped falling despite these strong measures. This stagnation suggests that traditional approaches, focused solely on discouraging all nicotine use, may have reached their limits. Simultaneously, the emergence of novel nicotine delivery systems-such as e-cigarettes, heated tobacco products,