Foreign allies actually love it when a leader talks tough and makes threats, even if it scares the voters at home.
SSRN · March 18, 2026 · 6414559
The Takeaway
Standard political theory suggests that 'belligerence' is a liability that carries high audience costs. However, this study identifies a 'belligerence benefit' where citizens in allied countries reward foreign leaders for being aggressive because it signals a commitment to shared defense, creating a strange incentive for leaders to act like hawks to please international audiences.
From the abstract
A central explanation for domestic audience costs---the decrease in approval leaders face when backing down from a previous threat---is that domestic audiences seek to avoid the international repercussions of failing to honor their country's commitments. But how do international audiences actually react to foreign leaders' actions during crises? We develop a theory of allied audience costs, specifying how and why foreign publics within allied states respond when leaders make threats they fail to