The "incumbency advantage" is a myth almost everywhere in the world except for the most and least democratic nations.
SSRN · March 18, 2026 · 6425040
The Takeaway
Analyzing global elections since 1945, researchers found that winning an election only helps you stay in power at the extreme ends of the political spectrum—in high-functioning democracies or corrupt autocracies. For the 'middle' countries that make up much of the world, being the incumbent provides no electoral boost or can even make you more likely to lose.
From the abstract
This paper explores the global incumbency advantage. We first show that existing subnational estimates of the incumbency advantage correlate positively with GDP per capita and democratic quality, and negatively with corruption across countries. Building on this meta-analysis, we then consider all presidential and parliamentary elections held since 1945 to estimate how a national electoral victory affects the probability that winning parties and candidates retain power beyond the term for which t