Economic crashes act like a one-way trap that permanently kicks young people and immigrants out of the workforce.
March 26, 2026
Original Paper
Structural consequences of cyclical change for marginal group employment
SocArXiv · 84uxy_v2
The Takeaway
While we think of recessions and booms as balancing each other out, this study found a vertical asymmetry: marginal groups lose their jobs much faster during downturns than they gain them back during upturns. This creates a structural decline in employment that persists even when the economy 'recovers.'
From the abstract
In Sweden and many other countries, young people and immigrants are facing increasing difficulties in finding employment. We suggest that the decline in employment prospects for marginal groups to a significant extent can be explained by skill upgrading and over-education. In two recent papers focusing on youth and immigrants, respectively, we find support for these hypotheses. The present paper examines how the long-term evolution of youth male employment is linked to cyclical economic change,