Turns out persecution doesn't actually make religions grow. Historically, Christianity won because it had the government's wallet, not because of martyrs.
Using agent-based modeling to test 'supply-side' religious theory, the author found that persecution-driven solidarity filters the existing faithful but fails to expand the pool of converts. The study argues that the 'Roman Model' of growth through persecution is a historical myth that doesn't hold up under formalized logic.
China is Not the New Rome: An Agent-Based Model Test of the Supply-Side Theory
SocArXiv · t9f7u_v2
Nationally representative surveys suggest Chinese Christian growth has plateaued at 2–5%, contrasting with supply-side predictions of 7–10% annual growth and an eventual Christian majority. Using an agent-based model, I formalize the theory's core mechanisms, including competitive evangelism, strict-church retention, cross-religion recruitment, and persecution-driven solidarity, under conditions more favorable to Christianity than any real religious market. Four findings emerge. First, the distr