Whether it’s a tiny slide of glass or a giant glacier, the way it first starts to stretch tells you exactly when it's going to snap.
March 26, 2026
Original Paper
Primary creep encodes time to failure across laboratory and natural systems
arXiv · 2603.24081
The Takeaway
Scientists found a universal mathematical link between the earliest, slowest stages of 'creep' and the final moment of failure. This relationship holds true across five orders of magnitude, meaning we could potentially forecast landslides or structural failures just by watching how materials initially deform.
From the abstract
Geomaterials often exhibit progressive creep characterized by an initial decelerating phase, frequently followed by an extended period of approximately constant deformation rate, and ultimately an accelerating regime leading to catastrophic failure. Despite extensive research, the timing of rupture and its relationship to the different creep phases, particularly in natural systems, remain poorly constrained. Here, we compile creep data from laboratory experiments on rocks, composites, papers, an