Mathematical models of high-stakes 'cat-and-mouse' games reveal that being irrational is actually a superior winning strategy.
March 31, 2026
Original Paper
Irrational pursuit-evasion differential games: A cumulative prospect theory approach
arXiv · 2603.27286
The Takeaway
Standard game theory assumes that rational, logical choices are the best way to win. This study proves that a 'pursuer' with a flawed or irrational perception of risk can catch targets that would be mathematically impossible to capture if they were acting logically.
From the abstract
This paper considers for the first time pursuit-evasion (PE) differential games with irrational perceptions of both pursuer and evader on probabilistic characteristics of environmental uncertainty. Firstly, the irrational perceptions of risk aversion and probability sensitivity are modeled and incorporated within a Bayesian PE differential game framework by using Cumulative Prospect Theory (CPT) approach; Secondly, several sufficient conditions of capturability are established in terms of system