People don't realize that even if you stopped all immigration today, the population wouldn't actually stop growing right away.
March 26, 2026
Original Paper
<p>Migration and Long-Term Demographic Change: Can We Control the Numbers?&nbsp;</p>
SSRN · 6343618
The Takeaway
A laboratory experiment reveals that people systematically underestimate the 'momentum' of population dynamics. Even when people want to hit a specific population target, they fail to realize that because of age distributions and family reunions, the migrant share continues to rise long after the borders are 'closed.'
From the abstract
In many Western societies, mass immigration has been one of the most divisive policy issues in recent years. Seemingly moderate inflows of migrants can have substantial demographic consequences in the long run, due to (1) higher fertility of the migrant population, (2) its younger age distribution, and (3) the possibility of family reunification. Yet, demography hardly appears in the policy debate, even in media outlets that are critical of mass immigration. This may indicate that the mechanics