economics Paradigm Challenge

You’re actually less likely to get murdered in a neighborhood run by a single powerful gang than one where two gangs are fighting for control.

March 27, 2026

Original Paper

Homicide and Power Regimes  <div> Four Propositions Toward an Integrative Sociological Theory of Lethal Violence </div>

Gabriel Feltran, Bruno Pantaleao

SSRN · 6357178

The Takeaway

While we assume a strong state is the only thing that reduces violence, this research shows that any 'hegemonic' power—even a gang or non-state actor—suppresses homicide to maintain stability. Lethal violence surges not from a lack of government, but specifically when the dominant power regime is challenged by rivals.

From the abstract

The sociological literature on homicide is divided between theories emphasizing the long-term decline of violence through civilizational processes and state formation, and studies focusing on short-term fluctuations explained by multivariable models, yet lacking an integrative theory. This paper proposes a framework that bridges these approaches by conceptualizing every homicide rate as the sum of two components: Organized Lethal Violence (OLV) and Interpersonal Lethal Violence (ILV). Drawing on