The 'job ladder' is basically broken: you're 50% less likely to get a better-paying offer from a different company than workers were in the 80s.
March 25, 2026
Original Paper
The Long-Term Decline of the U.S. Job Ladder
SSRN · 6456967
The Takeaway
While wage stagnation is often blamed on education gaps or automation, this research shows that one-third of the slowdown is actually caused by the disappearance of 'poaching.' As employer concentration rises and noncompetes spread, the primary mechanism for workers to get a raise—jumping to a competitor—has stalled.
From the abstract
We quantify how structural changes in the U.S. labor market have contributed to wage stagnation over the past four decades by weakening the job ladder. Using Current Population Survey microdata from 1982–2023 and a partial-equilibrium job-ladder model, we estimate that employed workers today are about half as likely to receive a better-paying outside offer as they were in the 1980s. This decline is unlikely to reflect less efficient matching, weaker labor demand, or changes in workers' acce