If Americans suddenly returned to having enough children to replace the population, the national debt would actually get worse for the next 30 years.
April 1, 2026
Original Paper
Low Fertility and Fiscal Sustainability: The Effects of Past and Future Fertility Rates on the US Federal Budget Outlook
SSRN · 6502520
The Takeaway
While increasing the birth rate is often cited as a fix for an aging economy, the immediate costs of health care and education for millions of new children would hit the federal budget long before they begin paying taxes. This reveals that pro-natalist policies are a massive short-term fiscal burden rather than a quick economic cure.
From the abstract
Low fertility and population aging have shaped the U.S. federal government’s spending and revenue patterns, contributing in large part to the growing federal debt. This paper examines the role of these trends in shaping America’s current fiscal position and the potential for a reversal of these trends to relieve domestic fiscal pressures. The authors find that the dramatic rise in fertility rates during the Baby Boom has led to a marked rise in old-age entitlement spending, as this cohort entere