Stripping unions of their power to collect mandatory fees had almost no impact on how much workers actually earn.
April 1, 2026
Original Paper
The Impact of Ending Mandatory Union Fees: Evidence from Administrative Data
SSRN · 6502618
The Takeaway
After the Supreme Court's Janus decision ended mandatory 'agency fees,' many predicted a wage collapse for public-sector workers. While union membership did fall significantly, the data shows there was zero impact on overall earnings, challenging the assumption that high union density is the primary driver of public-sector paychecks.
From the abstract
The 2018 Supreme Court decision in Janus v. AFSCME eliminated mandatory union fees for public-sector workers, overturning four decades of legal precedent. Using administrative payroll data from 400 jurisdictions across 21 states, I find that dues-paying membership declined by 8.9 to 13.4 percent by 2021, a drop substantially smaller than anticipated. At least three-quarters of this decline reflects the automatic termination of agency fees rather than voluntary exits by union members. Teachers, p