economics Nature Is Weird

Regions of the world with the highest historical risk of deadly diseases produce people with the most positive views about the future of humanity.

April 23, 2026

Original Paper

Beliefs About a Brighter Future for All Humanity as an Evolutionary Adaption to Pathogen Prevalence

Brian W. Haas, Xiaobin Lou, Victoria Wai Lan Yeung, Liman Man Wai Li, M. Azhar Hussain, Mohsen Joshanloo, Michael Bond, Farida Guemaz, Mahmoud Boussena, Ángel Sánchez-Rodríguez, Nuha Iter, Olha Vlasenko, Vivian Miu-Chi Lun, Nur Amali Aminnuddin, İdil Işık, Oumar Barry, Márta Fülöp, David Igbokwe, Mladen Adamovic, Ragna Benedikta Garðarsdóttir, Natalia Soboleva, Julien Teyssier, Fumiko Kano Glückstad, Joonha Park, Plamen Akaliyski, June Chun Yeung, Belkacem Yakhlef, Vladimir Turjačanin, Kiều Thị Thanh Trà, Claudio Torres, Boris Sokolov, Rosita Sobhie, David Sirlopú, Heyla Selim, Adil Samekin, Ana Maria Rocha, Muhammad Rizwan, Md. Reza-A Rabby, Ewa Palikot, Mateusz Olechowski, Ayu Okvitawanli, Danielle Ochoa, Martin Nader, Katarzyna Myślińska Szarek, Magdalena Mosanya, Fatma Mokadem, Linda Mohammed, Fridanna Maricchiolo, Arina Malyonova, Alexander Malyonov, Elmina Kazimzade, Naved Iqbal, Maciej R. Górski, Biljana Gjoneska, Vladimer Gamsakhurdia, Agustin Espinosa, Alejandra Domínguez Espinosa, Patrick Denoux, Rasmata Bakyono-Nabaloum, Laura Andrade, Anna Almakaeva, Marwan Al-Zoubi, Charity Akotia, Grace Akello, Kuba Krys

SSRN · 6505340

The Takeaway

Populations living in areas once ravaged by pathogens show a significantly higher level of optimism about long-term human progress. Modern logic suggests that a history of suffering and death would leave a culture cynical or fearful. The data reveals that high disease prevalence likely triggered an evolutionary adaptation to maintain hope and social cohesion under extreme stress. This biological drive for optimism helps communities survive and rebuild even when the environment is objectively dangerous. Understanding this link changes how experts view cultural resilience and the psychological impact of global health crises.

From the abstract

<p><span>An important question in cognitive and evolutionary psychology is how the human mind anticipates the future and copes with stress and risk of disease. The parasite-stress model suggests that many patterns of human behavior and thought are adaptations to varying levels of exposure to parasites and pathogens. A growing body of health psychology research shows a link between positive future thinking and resiliency to various forms of disease. In this study, we investigate the link between