A 17.2 percent reduction in gun violence followed the introduction of a simple sales tax on firearms in California.
April 24, 2026
Original Paper
Can Taxing Firearm Sales Reduce Gun Violence? Preliminary Evidence from Two Natural Experiments
SSRN · 6589598
The Takeaway
Excise taxes on firearm sales act as a powerful economic lever that significantly reduces the frequency of gun-related crimes. While most debates focus on total bans or background checks, these natural experiments in California and Colorado show that price increases can change behavior. The 17.2 percent reduction in California incidents suggests that even modest financial barriers can deter the acquisition or use of weapons in violent contexts. This policy approach treats gun violence as an economic problem that can be managed through market incentives rather than just criminal law. Taxation might be one of the most effective tools in the public health arsenal.
From the abstract
This study investigates the extent to which recently enacted excise taxes on the sale of firearms in California and Colorado influence the levels of gun violence in those states. We obtain and analyze empirical data from the Gun Violence Archive on all incidents of gun violence, including homicides and nonfatal shootings, in California, Colorado, and the surrounding states from January of 2022 through December of 2025. Using a difference-indifferences framework, we find that by discouraging fire