Sanctions and threats of war can actually make a dictator more likely to attack if they feel they have already lost power.
April 26, 2026
Original Paper
War Decisions Under Risk Asymmetry: Why Deterrence Breaks Down
SSRN · 6639858
The Takeaway
Deterrence strategy assumes that threatening a leader with pain will force them to choose peace. Human psychology shows that leaders are risk seeking when they are in a state of loss and only become cautious when they are protecting a gain. Threatening an adversary who already feels backed into a corner often triggers an aggressive response because they have nothing left to lose. Sustainable peace requires a guaranteed reward for cooperation rather than just a bigger punishment for conflict. This means modern foreign policy often uses the exact wrong tools to prevent the next war.
From the abstract
The paper analyzes the paradox of asymmetry in the perception of risk and its influence on decision-making on military aggression. It is shown that decision-makers demonstrate stable risk aversion in the domain of gains and a tendency toward risk in the domain of losses, which is confirmed by the results of behavioral economics and prospect theory. Under conditions in which maintaining peaceful behavior is associated with current and personalized losses for a political leader, while the possible