A vividly imagined alternative future is the primary reason why wealthy women are choosing not to have children.
April 26, 2026
Original Paper
The Aspiration Horizon
SSRN · 6645719
The Takeaway
Fertility rates in rich nations are plummeting because of the foreclosed-self cost of motherhood. Governments spend hundreds of billions on baby bonuses, yet these financial incentives fail to change the outcome. The problem is not the price of diapers or childcare, but the perceived loss of a woman's potential self. Women view having a child as a permanent trade for an idealized life they can clearly visualize. This psychological barrier makes traditional pro-natalist policies ineffective for modern societies.
From the abstract
Global fertility has declined from 4.7 births per woman in 1960 to approximately 2.2 today. In post-transition wealthy societies the decline extends far below replacement: South Korea recorded 0.72 in 2023, Japan 1.20, and most of Southern and Eastern Europe sits between 1.2 and 1.5. Despite unprecedented pronatalist expenditure, South Korea alone spent over $210 billion United States dollars (USD) since 2006, no country has reversed a sustained fertility decline. This paper proposes and develop