People who admit they know very little about global politics are significantly more likely to predict future world events accurately than geniuses or subject experts.
April 23, 2026
Original Paper
Predicting progress: Intellectual humility and accuracy in forecasts of global welfare
PsyArXiv · c5kx4_v2
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The Takeaway
Intellectual humility acts as the single most reliable predictor of forecasting success in volatile global domains. High fluid intelligence and access to massive amounts of data do not provide the same accuracy as the simple ability to recognize personal knowledge limits. Most people assume that the smartest or most informed individuals will have the best grasp of what happens next. The data shows that the discipline to question one's own assumptions leads to better judgment than raw brainpower. Cultivating a humble mindset might be the most effective way to navigate the uncertainty of the modern world.
From the abstract
Experts and pundits routinely forecast societal trends, yet these predictions often fall short, leading to poor policy decisions. What distinguishes accurate forecasters? In a three-year longitudinal tournament (N = 520), we tested whether intellectual humility (IH)—recognizing the limits of one’s knowledge—predicts accuracy in forecasting global welfare trends (e.g., armed conflict, CO2 concentrations). While fluid intelligence and political ideology offered limited predictive power, IH consist