Zero subzones from competitive Singaporean voting districts remained competitive after the 2025 redistricting, a result that defies mathematical chance.
April 23, 2026
Original Paper
Boundary Changes and Competitive Seat Exclusion in Singapore’s 2025 Redistricting: An Ensemble-Based Test
SocArXiv · p7q2m_v1
The Takeaway
Statistical ensembles provide empirical evidence of systematic electoral boundary manipulation in Singapore. The analysis shows that every single competitive subzone from the 2020 election was moved into a non-competitive district for 2025. This pattern of exclusion is so specific that it is highly unlikely to happen by accident. Most voters assume redistricting follows simple population changes or geographic logic. These results indicate a deliberate mathematical strategy to neutralize political competition before anyone even casts a vote.
From the abstract
We test whether Singapore's 2025 electoral redistricting produced a statistically anomalous allocation of competitively contested territory. Using a hypergeometric permutation test, we examine the 114 subzones that changed constituency between the 2020 and 2025 general elections. Among the 52 subzones originating from competitive 2020 constituencies (PAP vote share < 55%), zero ended up in competitive 2025 constituencies—against an expected value of 3.2 under random redistribution (Fisher’s exac